Nice Guys Finish Third

Bruce Cameron is a political strategist, pollster and media commentator who has seen a few post turtles in his time.

It's often said that "nice guys finish last". In Ed Stelmach's case he is genuinely a nice guy-- decent, hard-working, and honest. From my personal experience and other people's assessment that have met him or worked with him, the phrase "salt of the earth" springs to mind. So the obvious question is "why is his leadership of the PC Party and the Province being increasingly called into question?"

As Ed Stelmach prepares for the upcoming PC Party convention in Red Deer November 6-8, (where his leadership must be put to a vote according to the Party Constitution), pundits and politicos should look back to recent history for some clues about how the vote may unfold. Premier Ralph Klein had overstayed his welcome as PC Party leader by the summer of 2006, and an unofficial leadership race began in earnest, culminating in a seven person race in 2007 in which Ed Stelmach did not finish last, but third.

There were seven candidates in 2007 for the leadership (and by default the job as Premier of Alberta), and I vividly recall one of the first candidate forums in St. Albert. At the time I was working for Lyle Oberg, considered a dark horse and maverick with an outside chance of becoming leader. As it turned out, we were able to position Lyle Oberg as one of the top three contenders eventually. But on this early night of the PC leadership race, my task was to listen carefully to each candidate's comments, assess their delivery, and report back to the Oberg team. My comment at the time about Ed Stelmach was that his delivery was so halting that it made even his own supporters squirm in their seats. It was difficult to assess the substance of his remarks because it was so hard to understand him. Needless to say, many of the other camps, including Jim Dinning's, Ted Morton's, and Dave Hancock's, probably dismissed Ed as a serious contender after that first forum.

There is another saying that Stelmach supporters took to heart: slow and steady wins the race. In fact, in the early days of his leadership, the media commonly referred to him as steady Eddie. It was certainly true in winning the leadership race that he slowly and methodically made the rounds to every corner of the province on his tour bus, identifying and eventually pulling out his vote. In fact, were it not for Ed’s ability to pull out the vote in his own riding of Vegreville, Lyle Oberg may have well finished third. The difference between third and fourth place essentially came down to the difference between Ed's margin of victory in his home riding of Vegreville versus Lyle's much smaller margin of victory in his home riding of Strathmore Brooks. Why was it so important to finish third? Because the two other leading camps, for Dinning and Morton, were so adamantly opposed to each other that they would rally behind a third-place finisher rather than see their "enemy" elected.

Only time will tell if slow and steady wins the race. His advisers often fall back on the fact that he already did win two races, the PC leadership race and the last general election, despite predictions of a Tory collapse. But this time things look different. His own personal approval numbers are at historic low levels for a ruling PC leader, his party's momentum is a toxic -54, and even before the Wildrose Alliance selects a new leader, the political landscape in Alberta has shifted to a three-way race between the plunging PCs, the surging WRA, and the Liberals, who seem to be holding on to about 1/5 of the electorate.
If current trends continue and the likable but unloved Premier cannot reestablish a sense of direction and vision for the Province, it is likely that by the spring of 2010 the Wildrose Alliance will be leading in the polls. But will it matter? After all, the next provincial election does not happen until 2013. The real question is whether the Party will wait that long for the tortoise to win the race.
The Post Turtle (sent to me by a long time PC organizer)
While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75 year old Longview rancher, whose hand was caught in a gate while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man. Eventually the topic got around to Stelmach and the job he was doing as Premier.
The old rancher said, 'Well, ya know, Ed is a 'post turtle'.'
Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a 'post turtle' was. The old rancher said, 'When you're driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that's a 'post turtle'.'
The old rancher saw a puzzled look on the doctor's face, so he continued to explain. 'You know he didn't get up there by himself, he doesn't belong up there, he doesn't know what to do while he is up there, and you just wonder what kind of a dumb ass put him up there to begin with.'